Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.012141 0.013725 0.015440 0.017433 0.019688 0.022159 0.025075
2025-11-09 0.009368 0.011490 0.013980 0.017118 0.020972 0.025555 0.031428
2025-11-16 0.008033 0.010420 0.013379 0.017324 0.022451 0.028900 0.037648
2025-11-23 0.006958 0.009446 0.012676 0.017181 0.023314 0.031393 0.042877
2025-11-30 0.006332 0.008945 0.012471 0.017589 0.024845 0.034793 0.049527
2025-12-07 0.005530 0.008091 0.011672 0.017054 0.024965 0.036207 0.053473
2025-12-14 0.004947 0.007475 0.011124 0.016787 0.025389 0.038020 0.058081
2025-12-21 0.004400 0.006848 0.010487 0.016306 0.025417 0.039206 0.061794
2025-12-28 0.004187 0.006701 0.010544 0.016864 0.027051 0.042915 0.069678
2026-01-04 0.003944 0.006481 0.010461 0.017183 0.028314 0.046124 0.077014
2026-01-11 0.003746 0.006310 0.010436 0.017581 0.029721 0.049653 0.085145
2026-01-18 0.003471 0.005988 0.010131 0.017481 0.030279 0.051808 0.091114
2026-01-25 0.003235 0.005714 0.009894 0.017487 0.031036 0.054394 0.098126
2026-02-01 0.002967 0.005362 0.009494 0.017174 0.031210 0.055986 0.103519
2026-02-08 0.002810 0.005192 0.009393 0.017381 0.032318 0.059299 0.112306
2026-02-15 0.002615 0.004936 0.009116 0.017237 0.032762 0.061431 0.119051
2026-02-22 0.002516 0.004849 0.009138 0.017647 0.034271 0.065639 0.130105
2026-03-01 0.002301 0.004521 0.008684 0.017110 0.033913 0.066274 0.134203
2026-03-08 0.002139 0.004284 0.008383 0.016842 0.034051 0.067863 0.140315
2026-03-15 0.001966 0.004010 0.007991 0.016359 0.033715 0.068479 0.144475
2026-03-22 0.001923 0.003997 0.008110 0.016920 0.035548 0.073593 0.158444
2026-03-29 0.001857 0.003930 0.008113 0.017239 0.036902 0.077820 0.170870
2026-04-05 0.001803 0.003882 0.008153 0.017638 0.038453 0.082574 0.184838